Myanmar to Resume Tin Exports from Wa State, Shaking Up Global Supply Chain

Background: A Two-Year Export Halt Nears Its End

Myanmar’s Wa State, a critical player in the global tin supply chain, is preparing to restart its tin shipments by the end of 2025. This decision comes after a two-year suspension that disrupted international supply and contributed to elevated tin prices worldwide.

The Wa region alone accounted for approximately 70% of Myanmar’s tin exports before the halt in 2023. According to London-based research firm BMI, the upcoming resumption is likely to significantly alter global tin flow dynamics and pricing structures.

Market Impact: LME Tin Prices Already Reacting

News of Myanmar's impending return to the tin export market has already impacted the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Tin prices fell by 1.6% to $32,775 per metric ton immediately following the announcement.

This indicates how deeply integrated Myanmar's tin output is in the global electronics, packaging, and energy materials sectors, which heavily depend on tin for soldering and alloy production.

Tin Export Disruption vs. Recovery Forecast

Year	Status of Tin Exports from Wa	Global Market Share (Approx.)	LME Average Tin Price (USD/ton)
2022	Active	70% of Myanmar's total	$27,000
2023	Suspended	0%	$34,500
2025	Expected to Resume (Q4)	65–70% (est.)	$32,775 (post-news)

 

*2025 data reflects forecasts as per BMI and LME price movements in July 2025.

 

 

Global Supply Chain Implications

The resumption is expected to rebalance tin supply chains, particularly benefiting China, Malaysia, and Thailand, which previously relied heavily on Wa tin for their smelting operations.

“Wa State’s return will ease pressure on refined tin producers and may stabilize global prices in the medium term,” said a spokesperson from International Tin Association (ITA).

What to Expect Next

• Increased Export Volume: Early projections suggest Myanmar could export up to 18,000–20,000 tons/year of tin starting late 2025.

• Price Volatility Ahead: While the immediate market reacted with a decline, analysts suggest short-term price fluctuations until steady shipments resume.

• Geopolitical Oversight: Given Myanmar’s internal governance complexity, particularly in semi-autonomous regions like Wa, international oversight will remain a concern for downstream buyers.

Conclusion

Myanmar’s Wa State re-entering the global tin market marks a pivotal moment for metal supply chains in 2025. It underscores the region’s strategic importance and will likely reshape pricing, trade routes, and manufacturing plans across the packaging, electronics, and renewables sectors.

As stakeholders brace for market shifts, companies dependent on tin—including those in metal tin packaging, solder production, and battery technologies—should prepare their procurement and risk management strategies accordingly.